Atomkrig mellom India og Pakistan – ufarlig for oss?

Atomvåpen har vært nevnt her tidligere, i posten Nei til atomvåpen?. Krisen i forholdet mellom India og Pakistan, begge atomvåpenmakter, vil bli dårligere av Mumbai-angrepene som vi nettopp så. Det er nok totalt urealistisk å tro at dette skal eskalere til atomkrig med det første – men det finnes en del fakta det i så fall ville vært greit å vite. Fra Wikipedia:

Climatic effects

A study presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in December 2006 found that even a small-scale, regional nuclear war could produce as many direct fatalities as all of World War II and disrupt the global climate for a decade or more. In a regional nuclear conflict scenario where two opposing nations in the subtropics would each use 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons (about 15 kiloton each) on major populated centres, the researchers estimated fatalities from 2.6 million to 16.7 million per country. Also, as much as five million tons of soot would be released, which would produce a cooling of several degrees over large areas of North America and Eurasia, including most of the grain-growing regions. The cooling would last for years and could be “catastrophic” according to the researchers. [5] [6]

Ozone depletion

A 2008 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science found that a nuclear weapons exchange between Pakistan and India using their current arsenals could create a near- global ozone hole, triggering human health problems and wreaking environmental havoc for at least a decade.[7] The computer-modeling study looked at a nuclear war between the two countries involving 50 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices on each side, producing massive urban fires and lofting as much as five million metric tons of soot about 50 miles into the stratosphere. The soot would absorb enough solar radiation to heat surrounding gases, setting in motion a series of chemical reactions that would break down the stratospheric ozone layer protecting Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation.

Column ozone losses could exceed 20% globally, 25-45% at mid-latitudes, and 50-70% at northern high latitudes persisting for 5 years, with substantial losses continuing for 5 additional years. Column ozone amounts would remain near or below 220 Dobson units at all latitudes even after three years, constituting an extra-tropical “ozone hole”. Human health ailments like cataracts and skin cancer, as well as damage to plants, animals and ecosystems at mid-latitudes would likely rise sharply as ozone levels decreased and allowed more harmful UV light to reach Earth, according to the PNAS study. This study demonstrates that a small-scale, regional nuclear conflict is capable of triggering ozone losses even larger than losses that were predicted in the 1980s following a full-scale nuclear war. The missing piece back then was that the models at the time could not account for the rise of the smoke plume and consequent heating of the stratosphere.

Det er altså ingen grunn til å ta spesielt lett på en eventuell atomkrig mellom Pakistan og India. Nyere forskning viser det følgende:

Based on new work published in 2007 and 2008 by some of the pioneers of nuclear winter research who worked on the original studies, we now can say several things about this topic.

New Science:
A minor nuclear war (such as between India and Pakistan or in the Middle East), with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history. This is only 0.03% of the explosive power of the current global arsenal.
This same scenario would produce global ozone depletion, because the heating of the stratosphere would enhance the chemical reactions that destroy ozone.
A nuclear war between the United States and Russia today could produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet.
The climatic effects of the smoke from burning cities and industrial areas would last for several years, much longer than previously thought. New climate model simulations, that have the capability of including the entire atmosphere and oceans, show that the smoke would be lofted by solar heating to the upper stratosphere, where it would remain for years.

New Policy Implications:
The only way to eliminate the possibility of this climatic catastrophe is to eliminate the nuclear weapons. If they exist, they can be used.
The spread of nuclear weapons to new emerging states threatens not only the people of those countries, but the entire planet.
Rapid reduction of the American and Russian nuclear arsenals will set an example for the rest of the world that nuclear weapons cannot be used and are not needed.

Og da har man ikke engang nevnt radioaktiv stråling ennå… Holdningen om at Iran, Nord-Korea m.fl. må få lov til å få atomvåpen de også fordi det er “rettferdig” e.l. må vel med alt dette som utgangspunkt være borti staur og vegger.

Merk at en atomkrig mellom Russland og NATO ikke bare vil drepe hundrevis av millioner umiddelbart, men også føre til at temperaturen kan ligge under null den førstkommende sommeren. Ser for meg at det blir nydelige avlinger det året.

Dessverre er de økonomiske oppgangstidene slutt, og med dem forsvinner den faktisk svært fredlige verdenen vi har hatt de siste ti årene. Atomvåpnene må vekk, i hvert fall det aller meste av dem. Hvis ikke går det før eller senere galt.